Charge Distance Probabilities

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Charge Distance Probabilities

Post  Patchfur on Thu Oct 06, 2011 1:24 pm

Cross reference movement distance with charge distance and read the probability of success off the right side. Working out the probabilities with swiftstride was a bit of a pain but still interesting.



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Re: Charge Distance Probabilities

Post  nathanr on Thu Oct 06, 2011 2:40 pm

Where's the love for the dwarfs? You need a 3" movement column!

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Re: Charge Distance Probabilities

Post  RickyDMMontoya on Thu Oct 06, 2011 3:33 pm

Why bother having 4, 5, 6, etc. on there at all? It's going to be constant, and each amount will simply be "whatever the dice roll + X" in every instance, so just leave X out.

The only thing that varies is what the dice roll.

If you think it's a pain to work out the probabilities, check out the Troll Dice Roller sometime:
http://topps.diku.dk/torbenm/troll.msp

So for a regular 2d6, just put in "sum 2d6."

For Swiftstride, use "sum largest 2 3d6."

It even does handy graphs.

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Re: Charge Distance Probabilities

Post  Patchfur on Thu Oct 06, 2011 4:08 pm

Short people got no reason, and that includes Dwarfs!

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Re: Charge Distance Probabilities

Post  nathanr on Thu Oct 06, 2011 5:54 pm

Its all good. The way I see it, if you want to position your unit so that you have the greatest probability of your opponent failing a charge and you making your own charge you should take up position at their movement+9" away. If they have swift-stride then go their movement+10".


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Re: Charge Distance Probabilities

Post  Carson on Thu Oct 06, 2011 9:45 pm

This just makes my brain hurt.

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Re: Charge Distance Probabilities

Post  Patchfur on Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:31 pm

Good point about the charge distance fail range. Being M+9 inches away may maximize the chance of a failed charge followed by a successful charge. I'll have to work that one out too!

The conditional probablility math was interesting. I know there are computer programs that bf&i the solution but where is the fun in that?

Your brain will get better.

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